Grant title "Phylogenetics, Causal Inference, and Model Diagnostics for Longitudinal Studies of Infectious Disease Transmission and Control"       

Pairwise regression models can simultaneously estimate the effects of covariates (e.g., vaccination status, age, antiviral prophylaxis, or wearing a mask) on susceptibility to infection and on infectiousness, producing detailed epidemiological insights that can inform efficient and effective public health interventions. This project will extend these models in three ways: (1) developing efficient Bayesian methods to incorporate pathogen genetic sequences into parameter estimation to reduce bias and variance; (2) developing, evaluating, and refining methods to evaluate model fit and estimate secondary attack risks and infectiousness profiles; and (3) developing graphical and statistical methods for the identification and control of confounding and selection bias in studies of infectious disease